Can Carcieri be beat? As charles fogarty and his democratic allies gear up for an epic battle, the republican incumbent remains a formidable opponent BY IAN DONNIS

If the looming Democratic mantra is that Governor Donald I. Carcieri has done remarkably little during his first term in office, the republican political neophyte-turned-political force is more than ready to return fire.

Asked last week about his reelection message for the fast-approaching 2006 gubernatorial campaign, Carcieri launches into a detailed and seemingly unrehearsed stump speech that runs a good 25 minutes. "When you’re an incumbency, the first question is, are you doing the job — are you doing what you said you were going to do when you ran the first time?" he asks. Recounting his campaign critique of "a high-spending, low-performing, high-tax state, and a culture around here of too many special interests feeding at the trough," the governor cites his stated desire to challenge the status quo, target reduced state spending, and promote economic growth. "When I sit here and look at what we’ve accomplished in the last four years," Carcieri says during an interview in his State House office, "I think we’ve done all that."

The governor touts an array of accomplishments, from the long-sought passage of separation of powers legislation and his stance against General Assembly budgets, to the New England Economic Partnership’s recent prediction that Rhode Island will have the second-highest rate of job growth in New England, after New Hampshire, through 2009. Citing strides in four major areas — jobs, schools, government, and quality of life — the governor pronounces himself bullish about the state’s economic future.

Democrats, of course, see Carcieri’s tenure quite differently. To them, he is a brick-thrower whose confrontational style has precluded consensus on the leading issues facing the state. Although he attempts to push forward a conservative Republican philosophy while trying to swell the anemic ranks of the Rhode Island GOP, critics say, the governor has little to show in the form of tangible accomplishments. It’s enough to make some Democrats nostalgic for the days of Lincoln Almond, who, despite a deadly dull image, managed to get a lot done during his two terms as governor — and, not coincidentally, showed relatively little interest in challenging the ruling party at the General Assembly.

Lieutenant Governor Charles J. Fogarty, who has made clear his intention to run as Carcieri’s Democratic opponent, doesn’t intend to formally announce his campaign until early 2006. The last thing that Rhode Islanders want, he says, is an interminable gubernatorial campaign. Being that as it may, Fogarty remains ready to make the preliminary case against the Republican incumbent, touting himself as a more results-oriented leader who can bring people together. "There is a difference between campaigning and governing," Fogarty says. "I’m not sure that message has gotten through to this administration sometimes."

In many respects, Carcieri, 62, a former corporate CEO who is ideologically in tune with the Bush administration, is an unlikely populist for a place like Rhode Island. A one-time teacher, he has proposed tuition hikes for state universities, and critics charge that his stance on funding public education has posed the prospect of de facto property tax increases for local communities. Yet although his approval ratings have dipped, falling in Brown University polls from 69 percent in February 2003 to 57 percent in February 2005, Carcieri remains a formidable candidate — in large part because of his superior communication skills. Steadily pushing his message on talk radio, in town meetings, and elsewhere, the governor has a knack for framing some of the state’s biggest issues to his advantage. Like most pols, he tends to be relentlessly on-message — disparaging criticism of him as "politics" — but unlike some candidates, Carcieri comes across as being folksy and natural.

Democrats think the governor is more than a little vulnerable. For starters, a poll released in February by Brown University pollster Darrell West showed Fogarty trailing Carcieri by 11 points — not an especially wide difference, particularly considering how the governor attracts a far greater level of public attention on a daily basis. Fogarty, 49, may have the best family name in Rhode Island politics after Lincoln Chafee. His uncle, the late US Representative John E. Fogarty, chaired the powerful House Appropriations Committee from 1951-67, and he has built a lot of name recognition during two terms as lieutenant governor, having ousted Republican incumbent Bernard Jackvony in 1998. (A high-rise complex for the elderly in Pawtucket, and an international center for advanced study in health sciences, located outside of Washington, DC, also bear the Fogarty name.)

The LG’s office, where Fogarty has emphasized health-care and elder care issues, offers a useful platform for higher office, not to mention the opportunity to press the flesh at countless festivals and other events across the state’s 39 cities and towns. Fogarty, who previously served as a state senator from Glocester, faces several challenges, particularly overcoming Carcieri’s superior fundraising ability, as well as the governor’s genial image. Yet there are also several factors working in his favor. First and foremost, he has a clear path to becoming the sanctioned Democratic gubernatorial candidate since his only real potential rival, former attorney general Sheldon Whitehouse, is running for the US Senate. Three years ago, in the run-up to the latest in a string of damaging Democratic primaries, Fogarty yielded to Whitehouse, who lost a close three-way contest to Myrth York.

This time around, the party, as well as the state’s labor movement, will be energetically united behind Fogarty. Nor does it hurt that the Democratic mantle has passed from York, a liberal favorite who proved incapable of winning a general election in three successive attempts, to the more moderate and politically experienced Fogarty. This question nonetheless remains: with Carcieri having committed just two major mistakes — the ugly state police raid on the Narragansett Indian smoke shop in 2003, and a poorly vetted homeland security proposal that was quickly withdrawn after being widely condemned last year as an undue restriction on civil liberties — will voters be sufficiently dissatisfied to toss him out of office?

Although every election has its own idiosyncrasies, the 2006 gubernatorial race could prove a bellwether for the future of Rhode Island politics. (For all of the Ocean State’s identity as one of the bluest of blue states, it’s worth remembering how there are more independent voters here than registered Democrats.) A vote for the incumbent governor would signal support for his ongoing fight with labor and other mainstays of local Democratic politics, consolidating the GOP hold on the executive office for most of the last 20 years. A vote for Fogarty, on the other hand, would repudiate the self-styled Republican crusader.